2021 NFL Predictions. 26, 2022, at 10:51 PM. ET. Schedule Standings Stats Teams Depth Charts Daily Lines More We tiered each team's likelihood of making the postseason, from the Super Bowl favorites to the No. Ohio State – +900. When reading NFL odds, a negative number (-) by a team’s name means they are favored to win. 5 on those plays. With six playoff teams coming out of each 16-team conference, the maximum possible value of the Gini. How Arizona vs. The 2022 NFL season is only one week from wrapping up, which means the playoff picture is really taking shape. Stats. Actually, Week 1 Does Matter (To Our NFL Playoff Odds. FiveThirtyEight’s NFL Elo ratings. Get the latest NFL odds, point spreads, money lines, and over/unders from The Athletic and BetMGM. Stats. How to Read NFL Playoff Betting Odds. The end of the NFL regular season is approaching, and we're looking ahead to how the 14-team playoff picture could look. UPDATED Feb. 2%. After winning the National League pennant in seven games, the Arizona Diamondbacks are at to win it all. More: Lions Sink Saleh, Even Record After Smothering Wilson. So Seattle’s Elo rating is now 1755, ahead of New. Scores. AFC Playoff Odds Baltimore Ravens ADVERTISEMENT Yes: -900 (bet $10 to win $11. 19. 5 Eagles vs. 9, 2023. NFC Playoff Odds. 55 to 0. By Neil Paine. Given their standing in the division and the games remaining, the simulator thinks the Chargers have about a 47 percent chance of making the playoffs, represented by the large number at the top. This week, there are even more so. Jared Goff threw for over 250 yards and three touchdowns, and Jamaal Williams put up nearly 150. NFL Week 9 Elo Ratings And Playoff Odds. An updated look at FiveThirtyEight's updated Colleg Football Playoff Predictions and odds after Week 7. Let’s start by loading up the nflfastR data. Goldberg, 2020. The AFC playoff field looks stronger than the NFC Best postseason fields of the NFL’s 14-team playoff era (2020-22) by conference, according to pre-playoff QB-adjusted Elo ratings Seed No. Record, point differential, Pro-Football-Reference. 15, 2023. Yards after catch. 5 (-110) @ Jaguars. Wide receivers and tight ends with at least 48 targets in the 2022 season are eligible for leaderboards. 00 total) Buffalo Bills. In fact, you can extend back to the late last season and Bengals +5. NFL Week 12 futures betting odds: Super Bowl, MVP and more. The Bulldogs had a record five defensive players selected in the first round of the 2022 NFL draft but managed to reload with a nation-leading unit headlined by Jalen Carter, who most recently. If they're victorious—or lose by fewer points than the spread—you'd win $150. The NYT Playoff Picture gives the Saints a slightly better shot at making the playoffs, but not by much. FiveThirtyEight's 2015 NFL forecast uses an Elo-based model to calculate each team's chances of advancing to the playoffs and winning Super Bowl 50. FILE—CeeDee Lamb of the Dallas Cowboys avoids a tackle from Tay Gowan of the Philadelphia Eagles at Lincoln Financial Field on. Here are Sporting News' power rankings for the entire NFL playoff bracket 1-14, from the team with the best chances to win the Super Bowl to the longest odds of lifting the Lombardi Trophy in. You can use these odds to help make your predictions on which teams have to best chances to win it all at the end of the season, or which teams will go over or under their season win totals. 13, 2022, at 10:03 PM 2021 NFL Predictions Filed under NFL. FiveThirtyEight's 2022 NFL forecast uses an Elo-based model to calculate each team's chances of advancing to the playoffs and winning the Super Bowl. Baltimore Ravens-160 +130 +275. Their loss, combined with the Chargers’ win over Tennessee, has. The New York Giants (87%) and. 3%) Biggest strength: Offensive depth. Running backs are not eligible, as different weights are used to construct their composite scores than wide receiver and tight end. m. ’s odds would drop precipitously: The Clips’ regular-season record would dip to 45-37 and their point differential to plus-1. NFL Week 8 Elo Ratings And Playoff Odds By Nate Silver. It’s a 54 percent favorite to make the playoffs, up from 38 percent last week. 01 to 1. FiveThirtyEight’s NFL Elo ratings. FiveThirtyEight uses statistical analysis - hard numbers - to tell compelling stories about elections, politics and American society. These odds at. 59 last week. Soppe: The Chargers at -125 to make the playoffs has me sucked in. 10. . There are a few clear favorites to make it to the postseason, including the San Francisco 49ers and Miami Dolphins. Cincinnati Bengals. Josh Allen helped spearhead the effort. Atlanta Falcons : Despite having a losing record, the 4-6 Falcons head into NFL Week 12 with +190 To Make The Playoffs odds at Caesars Sportsbook. 1 draft pick candidates. FiveThirtyEight's 2022 college football predictions calculate each team's chances of winning its conference, making the playoff and winning a championship. Los Angeles Chargers » The Los Angeles Chargers (4-6). They got there by defeating the. Depth Charts. 5, 2022, at 11:22 PM 2022 MLB PredictionsFiveThirtyEight calculated game-by-game Elo ratings for every team in NFL history, over 30,000 ratings in total. Below, we’ll look at the best lines for each NFL team’s hopes of making it to the playoffs in the 2023-24 season. Cincinnati Bengals +570. Josh Katz, Kevin Quealy and Rumsey Taylor break down how. Even with a third-string QB, the 49ers still have the second-best odds to make it to the NFC championship game and fourth-best odds to make it to the Super Bowl, according to our model. Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa is the top MVP favorite at +370 after throwing for three TDs in Sunday’s win. Week 12. See their straight up, against the spread, over/under, underdog and prop picks. They force us (and you) to think about the world probabilistically, rather than in absolutes. Click a team name to proceed to the team playoff picture page. To save some time, we’re only going to load the schedules for the last two seasons (2018 and 2019). See each NFL teams chances to make the playoffs and win the 2024 Super Bowl. In fact, what are the other contenders’ odds of making the four teams that get to battle it out for national supremacy? An offer for Buckeyes fans. For example, if the Minnesota Vikings are listed at -130, you must bet $130 to turn a $100 profit on a Vikings win. Money. A positive number (+) means they are not favored to win. The Denver Broncos, Las Vegas Raiders and Tampa Bay Buccanneers are a few teams getting significant bets to. 19. College Football Championship odds 2024 (Odds updated Nov. There’s a shakeup at the top of the list following the retirement of Tampa Bay Buccaneers QB Tom Brady and the usual suspects from the last few seasons near the bottom. Make Playoffs. 1 draft pick candidates. We currently give them a 59 percent chance to make the playoffs for the first time since 2010. More. Daily Lines. Standings. Our player-based RAPTOR forecast doesn’t account for wins and losses; it is based entirely on our NBA player projections, which estimate each player’s future performance based on the trajectory of similar NBA players. Running back Marshawn Lynch of the Seattle Seahawks rushes against the Arizona Cardinals on Nov. go inside how the Chargers created one of the most dominant rushing attacks in the NFL through the first two weeks of 2023. Filed under NFL. Heading into Week 14, Tua led the NFL in dropbacks with motion at the snap, and he had a raw QBR of 63. The change in these two predictions is also shown. Dallas Cowboys wide receiver Dez Bryant warms up before a game against the New Orleans Saints in Dallas on Sunday. Jan. . Stay up to date with the Current MLB Playoff odds and futures for the 2023 Baseball season. According to FiveThirtyEight, the Lions, which sit one-and. How this works: These forecasts are based on 100,000 simulations of the rest of the season. More. 0% FPI chances to win division: 96. Jets These NFL playoff odds can fluctuate on a weekly basis. But those playoff contests have a lot. The Cowboys still have a 30% chance of making NFC champs with their current. FiveThirtyEight’s NFL predictions game is the first of its kind for gamifying NFL results. 49ers spread: Philadelphia -2. 12, 2023, at 10:17 PM 2022. Feb. They can take full control of the AFC East with a win over the. Eagles: Eagles vs. NFL (976 posts) NFL Playoffs (108) Philadelphia Eagles (87) Dallas Cowboys (84) NFL Slack Chat (78) New York Jets (38) Detroit Lions (33) NFL Quarterbacks (24) Las Vegas Raiders (14) NFL Playoff. Against the Chargers, he had a QBR of just 29. Win Super Bowl. Illinois: There's an assumption that, because it's Illinois -- a program that in 2022 finished with a winning record in Big Ten play and eight or more wins for the first time since 2007 -- the. 3% implied probability -10000. Unlike the previous week, when three of the top five. The Buccaneers are sitting well with a 52% chance of making the NFC championship game and a 24% chance of making it to the Super Bowl. FiveThirtyEight's MLB forecast uses a pitcher-adjusted Elo model to project the winner of every game and the chances that each team will win the World Series. The early playoff picture continues to take shape as we get set for NFL Week 4 games. FiveThirtyEight predicts NFL playoffs and Super Bowl LVI odds. Point spread: Ravens (-1. The table above shows the preseason and current playoff probabilities for each team. Thursday, January 12, 2023. Specifically, the model’s game-by-game forecasts are based on a combination of FPI ratings and committee (or AP) rankings — 75 percent on FPI and 25 percent on the rankings. Daily Lines. 3. There are a LOT of scenarios on the table for. 7 points, good enough to be in the 97th percentile and in 514th place. 13 Buffalo Bills. What do the odds say about the games, the NFC Championship Game and the AFC Championship Game? Take a look at the point spread, moneyline and over/under for the two NFL playoff games on Sunday. Design and development by Jay Boice. Statistical model by Nate Silver and Jay Boice. Play the game As a weekly. , Jan. Actually, Week 1 Does Matter (To Our NFL Playoff Odds. 1 seed in the 2021 NFL season (Photo by Cliff Welch/Icon Sportswire) Below are the TeamRankings 2021 NFL preseason predictions, including win/loss records, final standings, playoff odds and Super Bowl win odds for all 32 teams. Despite suffering a Week 18 loss to Denver, Los Angeles found its groove over the second half. A win next week would clinch a playoff berth. Odds to make playoffs Odds to miss playoffs Odds to win division; Arizona Cardinals +1000-2000 +2700. For any game between two teams (A and B) with certain pregame Elo ratings, the odds of Team A winning are: Pr(A) = 1 10−EloDiff 400 + 1 P r ( A) = 1 10 − E l o D i f f 400 + 1. Every team in the AFC North is at least 5-3 this season, which has set the tone for the. (13 teams didn't. Josh Allen helped spearhead the effort. TB at IND. 49ers at Eagles. 2, 2021. Of the 30,180 simulations in which the Saints lost, they made the playoffs 8,273 times, or 27 percent. 2022 CFB Playoffs. Teams. There are just four teams still with a chance to win Super Bowl 57 at State Farm Stadium in Glendale. Arizona Cardinals: Yes +2500 /No (-20000). The model enters Week 5 of the 2023 NFL season on an incredible 168-118 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. Related: Super Bowl odds: Every team’s. 2 and No. Standings. If there’s a team that can slow down the Chiefs, it’s the. Standings. A win on the road would send the Saints into their bye week at 5-8, about half a game behind the Buccaneers (who would have a higher winning percentage at 5-7). The Colts head into Week 16 with an 89 percent chance of making the playoffs, according to FiveThirtyEight. 69 total); Browns were +110 underdogs. FiveThirtyEight uses statistical analysis - hard numbers - to tell compelling stories about elections, politics and American society. 5, 2022, at 11:22 PM 2022 MLB Predictions During these 18 seasons, the 49ers made the playoffs 16 times, won more than 10 games 17 times, and racked up five championships. The Patriots may have the highest peak Elo rating of all time — 1849,. Players eligible for leaderboards are those who have played in at least 70 percent of their team’s games and average at least 24 minutes per game (including stats from the regular season and playoffs). NFL playoff odds: Teams offering the most value. 49ers:. Such teams are usually rare: From 2015-16 through 2021-22, our preseason forecast included, on average, 5. 11 in the league, and Chris Jones is one of the top candidates for Defensive Player of the Year with 15. 500 record. Zach Plesac is the unluckiest pitcher in franchise. Lions Playoff Scenarios To Watch for in Week 18. Odds. Georgia, Michigan, Oregon & Ohio State currently have the best odds to qualify for the four-team CFP. It gives the Irish a 28% right now and just a 31% if they win out and beat Stanford. Ravens 28, Browns 3. Preseason favorites, including the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers, remain in fantastic shape as far as the odds are concerned. Fourteen teams will enter the NFL postseason, but only two will be good enough to reach the Super Bowl in Arizona. The 2023-24 college football season will kick off with Week 0 on August 26th. The early playoff picture continues to take shape as the focus shifts to NFL Week 6 action. The analytics site has New England with the best odds at 35%, while the Dolphins have a 32% chance and the Steelers have a 27% chance of reaching the postseason. UPDATED Jun. FiveThirtyEight's 2021 college football predictions calculate each team's chances of winning its conference, making the playoff and winning a championship. Super Bowl 57 is set for Feb. 01 to 1. Playoff odds are also not much changed from last week: Green Bay saw its postseason chances improve the most. 1 draft pick candidates. NFL Predictions. 2023 NFL season: Projecting win share leaders on offense (quarterbacks + non-QBs) and defense; Top nine NFL offenses in 2023: AFC well represented in rankings, but surprise NFC team earns No. Standings. Spread. Bucks 3-2. Updated Nov. Eagles. His first season in Cleveland was rough, completing just 58. New York Times Playoff Simulator Lets Fans Test Out Playoff Scenarios. Everything you need to know for the wild-card games, including bold predictions, keys to victory, stat nuggets and score picks. FanGraphs simulates each season 10,000 times to generate the probabilities. Division avg. I say “basically” because technically Elo ratings are generally. The Steelers are the first team in NFL history with a winning record through eight games despite being outgained in each contest. With the complete field. (-500) odds stand for $100 payoff on every $500 wagered at the. The NFL playoffs are somewhere in between. The perception after the NFL’s fourth. If you choose the Pittsburgh Penguins to win with odds of +200, a winning wager would return you $300 (your original $100 bet plus the +200 odds). Forecasts have always been a core part of FiveThirtyEight’s mission. The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. By Alex Kirshner. Although the reigning Super Bowl 57 champion. Thanks for playing, and congratulations to Nicky Abbs, who finished with the most points this season. How Arizona vs. Here is how The Sporting News' model sees the 2022 NFL season unfolding. com. Alabama – +600. Louis Rams on Thursday in St. See how your favorite team stacks up. One of the NFL playoff bracket predictions from the model: It says the 49ers only have a 25. . How much will this game affect playoff odds. Here are the 14 teams we are projecting to make the playoffs, plus every team's chances of getting in CBSSports. FiveThirtyEight currently gives the Eagles a 39% chance of making the playoffs — but with a big caveat. Against the Chargers, he had a QBR of just 29. The Chiefs were the favorites all offseason as well, but saw the 49ers take over after Week 1. L. Filed under NFL. The sample sizes are tiny: With a one-and-done playoff structure, the league plays only 11 playoff games each year. 66%. 1 seed in the AFC and have the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Chiefs. With a 23% chance at the playoffs, that puts the Rams 19th in the NFL. Next >. NYG: Giants are 0-2 ATS this year after going 14-5 in 2022, including playoffs; Giants vs. 4% . Simulations as of Sept. The sample sizes are tiny: With a one-and-done playoff structure, the league plays only 11 playoff games each year. Feb. Team NBA Title July Odds Opening Night Odds 538 Odds Consensus Win Total 538 Projected Wins. if the Chargers-Raiders game had ended differently, according to FiveThirtyEight’s prediction. An average team has an Elo rating of 1500 — so your Lions are not so hot. Jacksonville Jaguars112. Odds to make the playoffs: 14%. 95. Behind the leaders,. Atlanta Falcons +115-135 +240. It is also on a 15-6 roll on top-rated NFL. Statistical model by Nate Silver and Jay Boice. NFL Predictions for Today. UPDATED Jun. The 2022 NFL season is over. Schedule. Odds to win NFC North: 83%. The Cardinals are 2-8 following a home win over the Falcons on Sunday. Six teams have clinched playoff berths, and though that’s still just 43 percent of the postseason field, at least we’re getting closer. The Cowboys still have a 30% chance of making NFC champs with their current. This is a pretty standard and expected line for this game. Design and development by Jay Boice and Rachael Dottle. In 2019 over 15,000 players signed up to play FiveThirtyEight’s NFL forecast game. A win over the Cardinals would increase those odds to 98 percent; a loss would decrease. 01% as they just started climbing their way back to a . NFL Playoff Odds: Bubble Teams, Biggest Games For Week 12. According to FiveThirtyEight’s NFL playoff projections, the Patriots’ odds of reaching the postseason are currently 19%. Scores. After missing the playoffs for the first time since 2008 in 2020, head coach Bill Belichick and the front office spent a record $163 million in guaranteed money heading into 2021. 4% The Titans benefited from the Ravens' loss Sunday, but the Patriots' victory Monday night. Schedule. Kansas City overtook San Francisco for the best Super Bowl odds after Week 7. Depth Charts. A FiveThirtyEight Chat. . The dream of an all-playoffs division is alive. Statistical model by Nate Silver. 3 of 9 4 of 9 San Francisco 49ers quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo (10) passes against the Dallas Cowboys during the first half of an NFL wild-card playoff football game in Arlington, Texas, Sunday. Playoff odds tell how likely an MLB team will win the division, wild card berth or win the World Series. 2023 Odds to Make the NFL Playoffs. Give me the Saints at -190 to make the playoffs, or take the better odds of +120 to win the division. maya (Maya Sweedler, editor): The 2022 NFL playoffs started off with some exciting games that produced unexciting results, with only the New York Giants and Dallas Cowboys knocking off a higher. This page is frozen as of June 21, 2023, and will no longer. The New York Jets (4-6) lost to the Buffalo Bills on Sunday, dropping their chances of making the playoffs slightly to 1 percent. Of the 19,820 simulations in which the. 96. Houston Texans: Own 25-yard line. Team score Team score. UPDATED Feb. Seattle is doing amazing to be where they are in the rankings. The Chiefs And Eagles Made The Super Bowl With Grit, Talent, Heart And (Yes) Luck. Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Buffalo Bills (13-3). 5h NFL Nation. In fact, in the Saints’ first nine games, the only 2022 playoff team they face is the Jags, who had to win five straight to get to 9-8 and in the postseason last year. In many ways. Washington players celebrate after defeating the Dallas Cowboys at AT&T Stadium in Dallas on Monday. 5% Reason for hope: Josh Allen. Super Bowl odds: +420 FPI chance to make Super Bowl: 30. The Detroit Lions, New York Jets and Dallas Cowboys appear to be the biggest risers of the offseason. The Philadelphia Eagles currently have the best odds to make the playoffs among NFC teams. 1 spot(6) Giants at (1) Eagles. And, as a result of the Week 17 win, the Lions' playoff odds now sit at 34 percent, per FiveThirtyEight. hermsmeyer: So much depends on Wilson — and he is just not playing well. PIT at CIN Sun 1:00PM. Stats. This means their model was able to predict NFL games better than 97% of those that played. Cincinnati does lose the head-to-head. 9 on 12 dropbacks with motion. What to watch for: The Giants come in riding the momentum of a 31-24 upset win over the Vikings in the wild-card round, while the Eagles are trying. That’s. Are you FiveThirtyEight? Claim this page. Yes: +200 (bet $10 to win $30 total) Sportsbooks are offering odds on NFL teams to make the 2023-24 playoffs. NFL wild-card playoff best bets *Odds and analysis as of Monday 1/9* Chargers -1. It’s the revenge of Frank Reich game, since he authored the biggest comeback in NFL playoff history and this is the first in regular-season history where a winning team had trailed by at least. For the first time since 2000, there have been nine games won by teams over an opponent with at least four. Filed under Football. Thanks for playing, and congratulations to Derek Truesdale, who finished with the most points this season. Teams. Bills in the AFC and the Packers vs. The Patriots may have the highest peak Elo rating of all time — 1849, after their 18-0 start to the 2007 season — but if you were born in 1981, the 49ers were among the NFL’s best for your entire childhood. Friday, January 27, 2023 It’s another week of NFL games — and another chance to beat FiveThirtyEight at its own game. The Lions have the head-to-head edge until they meet again in Week 18, and. 5 Pittsburgh Steelers (5-3) 2nd in AFC North. 2023 NFL Playoff Predictions for the Upcoming Football Season. Round-by-round probabilities. Our AFC chart is thickly carpeted with playoff implications this week, with Miami, Buffalo, San Diego, Kansas City, Houston and the entire AFC North vying for a wild card position. FiveThirtyEight predicts NFL playoffs and Super Bowl LVI odds. SBR - trusted by bettors for over 20 years. Traditional predictions have them sitting with a 75% chance to make the playoffs. The Lions have a 40% chance of making the postseason, according to projections from FiveThirtyEight, the third-best odds of teams that haven’t already qualified. Friday, January 27, 2023. Marc Finn and Andres Waters contributed research. 4% chance of winning the 2023 Super Bowl, the third-lowest percentage of the teams remaining in the field. Current playoff odds (via FiveThirtyEight. 2 percentage points. Arizona Cardinals. More. Here is our look at the 2024 College Football Championship odds market (odds via our best sports betting sites). May 2, 2023. 0. FiveThirtyEight's MLB forecast uses a pitcher-adjusted Elo model to project the winner of every game and the chances that each team will win the World Series. . 538 nfl predictions . The Cowboys still have a 30% chance of making NFC champs with their current. In their last outing, the Bills won 37-3 over the. Golden State’s Steph Curry won the Bill Russell Most Valuable Player (MVP) award. The Eagles won 38-7. There are a few heavy favorites to reach the postseason, including the undefeated San Francisco 49ers and Philadelphia Eagles in the NFC and the defending. With the final AFC playoff spot up for grabs in Week 18, FiveThirtyEight has released its final playoff odds for the Dolphins, Patriots and Steelers entering the final weekend of the regular. FiveThirtyEight's nfl picks, bets, and accuracy from Pickwatch. The Arizona Cardinals, Carolina Panthers, and New York Giants have the worst odds to make the playoffs. According to FiveThirtyEight, the Packers head into their Week 16 matchup with an 11% chance of making the playoffs. Schedule. 78dMike Clay. That’s wild. With six playoff teams coming out of each 16-team conference, the maximum possible value of the Gini. Figures displayed are rounded to the nearest tenth, but placement along the line is based on unrounded RAPTOR or WAR values. Illustration by Elias Stein. odds to make NFL Playoffs. NFL History. Depth Charts. 2023 NFL Predictions: Super Bowl LVIII, Playoff Picks, Award Winners and More From MMQB Staff Our writers and editors fill out their brackets and pick a champion. . The 2023 NFL playoffs and the countdown to Super Bowl 57 are upon us. As always, we estimate each team’s. The previous No. . The deluge of. 10 Oregon has 13. According to FiveThirtyEight's playoff prediction model, the Patriots' playoff odds only dropped 6 percent in Week 12. AFC No. The Buccaneers are sitting well with a 52% chance of making NFC champs and a 24% chance of making it to the Super Bowl. What to know: The Bills still hold the No. The rivals squared off a third time in the playoffs, with the result mirroring the first two.